Darko Stanković University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Republic of Srpska

Željko Vaško University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Republic of Srpska

The aim of the paper is to make a forecast of apple production in Bosnia and Herzegovina until 2020. The subject of the research is analysis of production trends in the apple production, namely the number of trees, the total quantity of production and the yield per tree. The analysis covers historical data in the period from 2006 to 2015, and forecasting parameters for the next five years. To interpret the status of apple production, statistical indicators such as arithmetic mean value, interval variation, coefficient of variation, and rate of change have been used. Furthermore, statistical trends have been used for the projections of development of apple production. In order to eliminate the influence of extreme weather conditions in 2012 and 2014, corrections were made of the achieved yield data by calculating the average based on the previous and the following year. Afterwards, the projections have been made in two scenarios, both original and corrected dat